🇺🇸 Special: My Marketing Analysis of the US Elections in 3 Points
What we can learn for our own marketing strategy from the Harris and Trump campaigns? Plus: What it means for our sustainability communications.
Hi 👋 I’m Florian Schleicher. This is the FutureStrategies newsletter of FUTURES. Thank you so much for reading along 💚 If you want to learn strategic marketing from me, then my Simple & Sustainable Marketing Academy is the perfect fit for you.
I have a confession to make:
Every four years, I dive deep into the coverage of the US elections.
How deep?
I listen to 1-2 podcasts daily with analyses from The Washington Post, read The New York Times, watch Fox News on YouTube (yes, really!), and closely observe what’s happening in the campaign.
Why?
Because I know there’s a lot we can learn for our own marketing strategies—how communication is handled, which target groups are engaged and how, which messages are most successful, and, most importantly, why they work well or less effectively.
If Americans excel at one thing, it’s the art of presentation.
And that fascinates me.
And essentially, an election campaign is nothing more than a massive, extremely expensive (around 14 billion USD was invested in 2020), and globally significant marketing campaign aimed at driving behavioral change.
So today, let’s focus on three key marketing points:
💜 What emotions do both campaigns work with?
🎭 Which target groups and channels are at the center?
🌎 What can we learn from this for Green Marketing and sustainability?
Disclaimer:
I am not here to evaluate the politics or the demands of the candidates and parties, but solely their communication and marketing strategies.
This posting is also by no means a complete analysis, but I focus on 3 things that I consider very important for you my readers.
Before we dive in, a brief status check
Where do we stand as of August 17, 2024, when I last checked this article?
President Joseph R. Biden has resigned. His successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, is jumping into the Democratic National Convention and riding a wave of (almost exclusively) positive media coverage and momentum.
Former President Donald Trump is losing ground in the polls and appears to be without a clear strategy one month after Biden’s exit.
Who would have thought, that the Democrats only need to exchange their candidate to turn the race around completely?
💜 What emotions do both campaigns work with?
The simplest emotions and values are the most effective.
Future vs. Past.
Hope vs. Uncertainty.
Joy vs. Fear.
Old vs. Young (or even older).
Excitement vs. Apathy.
The 2024 US election embodies them all.
In this article, I’d like to focus on three core emotions and values that marketing expert Phil Barden described in his book ”Decoded”:
Excitement, Autonomy and Security.
If you want to know more about this model, I really recommend his book or this posting.
But simply illustrated:
Volvo represents safety.
Mercedes conveys autonomy through superiority and independence.
BMW embodies excitement - communicating the joy of driving.
When the race was still ‘Biden vs. Trump,’ two central values stood in opposition:
Biden stood for security.
Trump for autonomy.
Joe Biden’s emphasis on security was reflected in his focus on stability, both domestically and internationally. During his campaign, he positioned himself as the candidate who could safely guide the nation through crises (especially during the COVID-19 pandemic). His extensive political experience was presented as a safety net for voters.
Safety is a crucial emotion in marketing.
But:
No one gets excited about it.
Having an airbag in your car is a basic necessity for many - something that’s simply expected. Few would say, “I chose this car because it was the safest!”
And that was one of the fundamental issues with Biden and his campaign. It was both supported and undermined by the fact that, at 81 years old, he could no longer physically project safety.
In marketing, we call this a text-image mismatch.
Trump, on the other hand, focused on autonomy, from his self-image as an unconventional, independent leader to his emphasis on being “not part of the establishment” and breaking away from traditional political norms. He stood for the “other,” the “new,” appealing to voters who felt alienated by the existing power structures.
Autonomy can indeed inspire enthusiasm, but mainly because it represents the “other.”
In terms of content, Donald Trump himself never offered much. He was a master of spectacle (more on that later) and targeted attacks on others.
This is, unfortunately, a powerful recipe in marketing, especially in political communication: pitting groups against each other under the premise that “the problem is the others.”
The “others” are often an artificially chosen enemy (elites, immigrants, journalists, the rule of law, industry, etc.). Nearly every party resorts to this tactic.
But there is one even stronger emotion…
Enter: Kamala Harris and excitement.
From her very first appearance, the Vice President tapped into the third essential emotion - and what I believe to be the most powerful value in marketing:
Excitement.
Why is excitement such a powerful emotion, one that is currently moving mountains?
Positive, memorable moments can bring exponential benefits with minimal effort. This is especially true in an election campaign that has, until now, been marked by fatigue and a repetition of the past.
What’s the psychological reasoning behind this?
Emotions are complicated phenomena, and scientists often analyze them in two dimensions. One dimension is called “valence,” or whether the emotion is positive/pleasant or negative/unpleasant, and to what degree. The other dimension is “arousal,” that is, whether the emotion is activating or deactivating. Excitement might be considered to have positive valence and high arousal. In contrast, you might think about calmness (positive valence/low arousal), anger (negative valence/high arousal), or boredom (negative valence, low arousal).
Excitement is an exclusively positive emotion.
And the Harris-Walz campaign actively and proudly harnesses this excitement. Hardly a public appearance by running mate Tim Walz goes by without him saying, “Thank you for bringing back the joy to politics, Madam Vice President.”
In The Psychology of Social Shopping, Paloma Vasquez describes the effect of excitement quite simply:
In a state of excitement or arousal, people think and behave very differently. Emotional states trump rational thinking; it’s easier to sell to consumers when they are excited.
Kamala Harris smiles, laughs, and radiates energy.
The campaign seems to genuinely bring her joy.
MSNBC journalist Alex Wagner captures this well (and enthusiastically) in her interview with Stephen Colbert:
At every touchpoint - whether it’s on TikTok, during stump speeches and campaign events, or even on the error page (!) in the merchandise shop, which deliberately references a meme-excitement is omnipresent.
From an evolutionary point of view (excitement) has evolved to motivate us to leave our home base to scout, ultimately, new genes with which to mix. The main goals of the seeking system are to seek new and unfamiliar stimuli, break out of the familiar, discover and explore your environment, seek change, avoid boredom, and be different from others.
Phil Barden, Decoded
The entire Harris campaign seems to genuinely enjoy the process: Like Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, who responded to a follower’s question on the official and extremely popular KamalaHQ TikTok channel—“WHO IS RUNNING THIS ACCOUNT?” — with a selfie video saying, “It’s obviously me.”
It kind of feels like a rediscovery of excitement and joy for US-Democrats, who were plagued by pragmatism over the last 8 years, and only a few, like maybe Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were able to provide that same level that many felt about Barack Obama.
Kamala Harris’s chosen running mate, Tim Walz, fits perfectly into this dynamic: a Midwestern, cool uncle type who brings every appearance to life with his smile, enthusiasm, and authentic appreciation. The chemistry between Harris and Walz also seems to be just right - another important factor, because:
People like people who like each other.
I am not weird, you are weird.
Also significant: Walz was the Democrat who called Trump and his running mate JD Vance “weird”, which was another communicative masterstroke.
There’s a lot that can be said about Trump. He has long been accused of aspiring to be an authoritarian leader, someone with extreme views and a lack of respect for others - in short, someone who should instill fear.
Many, including Biden, have portrayed Trump as the symbol of democracy’s demise. But that’s something many people find too extreme.
However, portraying Trump as “weird” is something that resonates with many and is easier for them to relate to.
As I write this article, Donald Trump has yet to find a new direction.
He seems aimless, nostalgically talking about Biden, whom he apparently misses as an easy opponent, and resorting to the same old accusations and claims that he simply recycles from his campaigns against Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.
And his campaign also seems to be struggling to adapt to this new reality.
For over 8 years, Trump was accustomed to being the center of attention. His emphasis on the value of “autonomy” was clear and evoked nostalgia for “better times” among many Americans. “Finally, someone who speaks our language and addresses things the way I feel.”
Trump generated entertainment - but always through negativity, fear, and pathos.
Heavy and dramatic.
Eight years later, however, many people have grown tired of it.
Politics is usually boring. And complicated.
That’s why a campaign that simply and powerfully focuses on excitement resonates so strongly. We can see this in the numbers, where Harris is currently ahead of Trump—an incredible comeback in just a few weeks.
With Harris and her team, everything seems relaxed, light, simple, and full of joy and enthusiasm. Yes, there are dramatic issues like abortion, the full Agenda 2025 program, and immigration at the southern U.S. border.
But the polls seem to support the Harris-Walz campaign: Above all, people want a positive outlook on their future. And they want entertainment.
➡️ Would you like to give your marketing campaigns and projects a booster shot of excitement? I can help you with that!
Simply contact me and tell me more about your challenge!
Let’s create an exciting marketing strategy together. ⬅️
The big question will be: Who can provide even more entertainment in the coming weeks? And which Americans will be the most excited?
🎭 Which target groups and channels are at the center?
I’ve written several times before about the strategic importance of deeply understanding your target audiences.
In the U.S. presidential campaign, the candidates seem to have a very clear understanding of their target audiences (for the most part):
Overall, many of the same voting patterns that were evident in the Biden-Trump matchup from July continue to be seen today. Harris fares better than Trump among younger voters, Black voters, Asian voters and voters with college degrees. By comparison, the former president does better among older voters, White voters and voters without a college degree.
Kamala Harris appears to be gaining ground in almost every segment, steadily increasing her share of support.
The key question will be: Will all these voters actually turn out to vote? We generally know that older voters are more likely to vote than younger ones.
In my workshops and in my Sustainable Marketing Academy, I always emphasize how crucial it is to tailor messages to the target audience and their needs. One thing is particularly important: looking behind the scenes. If we simply believe what our target audience tells us, we won’t be successful.
Many are familiar with the quote from Henry Ford:
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said ‘faster horses.’”
Two weeks ago, The New York Times released an intriguing podcast where they interviewed swing voters about what they want from the campaigns to convince them.
The answer: Concrete solutions to economic issues.
We’ll see how the parties respond to this.
However, I believe that the campaign teams and marketing experts of the political campaigns need to look deeper behind the scenes here as well. Most people will prefer “simple” and appealing solutions over truly concrete ones.
So, I believe we’ll hear statements that sound good and are broadly interpretable.
And I believe that if the Harris campaign can successfully combine this with joy and excitement, they will convince even more voters.
(Here are some first indications on that)
Donald Trump, however, seemingly has a significant advantage.
He has his own social media platform, “Truth Social”—after being banned from Twitter in 2021, he can now control the conversations there as he pleases and send messages to his target audience around the clock.
But there’s a catch: He only reaches his own community and can mobilize them to vote, but with just over 7.5 million users, his reach is relatively small by American standards. It’s difficult for him to reach new audiences because they simply aren’t on this newly created platform.
Trump is currently very active in communication with his core supporters: He gave an interview at Mar-a-Lago to the controversial influencer Adin Ross, participated in a podcast with wrestler Logan Paul, and had an interview plagued by technical difficulties with Elon Musk on X.
All of this strengthens his existing voter base, which is important, but to win the election, he also needs to reach swing voters, and these channels are currently not doing that.
Trump continues to draw large crowds with his campaign rallies, but they are happening less frequently than before. I’m personally curious to see if he will be more active and reignite the cult of personality that surrounds him.
Kamala Harris’ Digital Triumph
In addition to multiple live campaign appearances each day, Kamala Harris also prioritizes her digital channels and young voters—the same demographic that helped Barack Obama secure his first election victory. This target group craves entertainment and is easily excited, and Harris aims to build a sense of relatability and accessibility with them.
“There's something about her that young people and pop culture can really relate to. People get really excited about her, and she knows how to channel that into actually issuing a call to action.”
Rachel Palermo, ehemalige Deputy Communications Director von Harris
The fact that half of the pop culture scene has started an unofficial movement around Kamala Harris and her campaign is a huge help.
From dance mixes based on her “Coconuts” remark, to her appearance on the cover of TIME Magazine, to musician Charli XCX turning her into the trend of the summer with the name of her own album:
Particular importance is being placed on young platforms like TikTok and Snapchat in this election campaign, as these are where voters experience authentic and relatable content firsthand, delivered by influencers who speak their language.
We’ve been living through the atomization of media for years now, as the gatekeepers of the 20th century have to compete with masses of digital competitors, and now content creators on platforms like TikTok. The research shows that for younger voters especially, individual influencers are more trusted on platforms like Snapchat and TikTok than journalists are. In this election, attention is still finite, but content is practically infinite—so while traditional journalists are still valuable, the competition they face for people’s time and attention is ferocious.
Harvard Kennedy School professors Nancy Gibbs
This engagement seems to work in her favour a lot:
Behind this effort is a team of very young staff members. Parker Butler, 24, and Lauren Kapp, 25, lead a five-person Gen-Z team that, after some training and a few basic guidelines, took on the responsibility of creating content. As Butler himself notes, the youth of the team is the key:
“(The team) consists of a lot of young people who just get the internet instinctually.”
What is the ROI of digital reach?
Marketing experts know that, in the end, marketing must deliver a return on investment and not just be entertaining for its own sake. Otherwise, marketing is just a hobby and has no impact on changing behavior.
But even when it comes to hard facts and ROI, the Harris-Walz marketing campaign seems to be working, as Rob Flaherty, Harris’ Deputy Campaign Manager, confirmed:
“…the digital team’s goal is to convert the organic excitement about her candidacy into volunteers, donors and simply getting more people to post about Harris — from professional content creators to everyday supporters.
Our job in the campaign is to make the windmill. It is the vice president’s job to make the wind. And the enthusiasm around her is a testament to what she brings to this candidacy.”
In addition to a large number of volunteers, the campaign also saw a massive surge in donations. Last week, they reported raising $81 million in just 24 hours. According to their own figures, the Harris for President campaign now has a budget of $240 million.
These are real results, because when platforms like TikTok and Instagram help drive campaign merchandise sales and encourage volunteers to assist at events and go door-to-door, that represents a significant and direct ROI for their marketing efforts.
The role of Public Relations
Young audiences are on TikTok and similar platforms. However, large mainstream media outlets still reach the broader population, making coverage in TV, online, and print media a crucial part of the marketing mix.
Because positive media coverage saves money and gives social proof.
Consistent media coverage benefits any business, and the same goes for politicians. For both Harris and Trump, it’s crucial to dominate the news cycle with their own agenda-setting, continuously providing journalists with exciting and fresh stories.
Donald Trump is a master at delivering the right images and statements that dominate the media for days, shaping the national conversation.
However, in recent weeks, the master Trump seems to have been overtaken by the rapid and positive news surrounding Harris.
Trump survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and, in an iconic moment that might just win him the presidency, rose from the ground with a bleeding ear and raised his fist, shouting, “Fight! Fight! Fight!” to the applause and awe of the crowd.
It looked like the final domino and the press photo of the year—a masterclass in staging.
A few days later, Biden resigned, and since then, hardly a day has passed without news about Kamala Harris.
First came the endorsements from prominent politicians, followed by record-breaking donations, the buzz around the pop culture moments I mentioned earlier, and then the excitement surrounding the announcement of her running mate. Now, the headlines are about her lead in the polls. Soon, we’ll see reports on her economic plans. And this week will be dominated by the National Democratic Convention, where Harris will officially be crowned the Democratic nominee, with political heavyweights like Barack Obama singing her praises.
Trump seems to be losing at his own game. He tries to score points with controversial statements, but even Fox News is increasingly headlining stories about Kamala Harris (though they view her rise critically).
Hardly anyone is still talking about the assassination attempt on Trump.
In marketing and PR, we call this agenda setting—the deliberate and active management of themes and messages in the media to influence their perception and relevance among the target audience.
Who will win the election?
Before I dive into what we, as marketing experts and strategists, can learn from the U.S. election and its candidates for our own sustainability projects and businesses, I’ll give you my prediction on who will win.
The winner will be the person who manages to dominate the media coverage in the coming weeks.
Right now, many signs point to Kamala Harris.
She is winning not only because she is generating enthusiasm, but also because many Americans simply want someone other than Trump, a woman, a younger candidate. Excitement is what emotionalizes many and that is important for donations and volunteers. But the mere fact that she represents an alternative brings her many swing voters, according to the polls.
However, the past few weeks have shown just how quickly things can change, and both parties have outstanding communication teams and marketing experts who will do everything they can to secure victory.
🌎 What can we learn from this for Green Marketing and sustainability?
Both are complex topics, or as Sohali Vaddula, National Director of Communications for the College Democrats of America, writes:
“Politics is difficult. All of these policy issues or things that are going on can be really heavy sometimes.”
For decades, researchers have tried to draw attention to our climate crisis with clear numbers, data, and facts. Oil and gas companies, institutional investors, resistant corporations, and lobbyists have been demonized. Crisis scenarios have been painted.
With what success?
We are on track to achieve only 12% of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. There has never been more discussion about CO2 and sustainability. And our CO2 emissions have never been higher.
Just like Joe Biden’s campaign, which focused soberly on safety and portrayed Donald Trump as the ultimate threat to democracy, our current discourse on sustainability has not been truly effective.
In my view, the key to a green future lies in exactly what Kamala Harris is doing right now:
Excitement as the Secret Weapon for Sustainability
Safety, crises, and facts do not win over the majority.
As Peter Kareiva, former director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA puts it:
“Science tells us what to do, while storytelling makes us want to do it.”
Excitement can achieve that.
Excitement for an optimistic future.
Although it’s very easy to only see the negative outcomes that can happen on that horizon, any futurist or historian can tell you that it is the optimistic future that pushes us forward and usually wins out.
Jasmine Bina, ConceptBureau
That’s not easy.
We need to develop new perspectives, uncover potentials, and find stories that, with smart marketing strategies, truly ignite excitement for a sustainable future.
However, there are already some good approaches that are beginning to describe this new future.
We need to inspire people not only for alternatives like solar panels, electric cars, or plant-based meat but also for changing our lives for the better. Can we get people excited about using public transportation? Can we motivate them to be as enthusiastic about repairing and sharing products as they are about buying new ones? Can we inspire people to choose foods that don’t require the destruction of our ecosystems?
This is how Raz Godelnik describes the challenge of sustainability marketing.
At the core, we all want the same thing:
A beautiful and livable future
“What if we imagined “wealth” consisting not of the money we stuff into banks or the fossil-fuel-derived goods we pile up, but of joy, beauty, friendship, community, closeness to flourishing nature, to good food produced without abuse of labor? What if we were to think of wealth as security in our environments and societies, and as confidence in a viable future?”
Crises are often challenges that inspire great stories.
I believe we need to reinvent the narrative around sustainability.
“People don’t need enormous cars; they need admiration and respect. They don’t need a constant stream of new clothes; they need to feel that others consider them to be attractive, and they need excitement and variety and beauty.”
Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows, in The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (2005)
We need, as Raz Godelnik writes excitement around sustainability.
And marketing can play a crucial role in this.
We need to tell compelling stories about sustainability.
That’s why I’m particularly excited to be working on a project for the City of Vienna, where we’re focused on exactly that: creating excitement for sustainability.
How does it work?
My friend Thomas Klaffke, a trend researcher and author of CreativeDestruction, outlines the necessary steps in one of his excellent articles:
Simplifying, Humanizing, and Rebranding
Less Rationality, More Emotions
Fewer Facts, More Friendships
From Bits & Pieces to Prime-Time
Less Doomerism & New Narratives
All of these steps can be clearly observed in the successful campaigns of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and offer valuable lessons for our own marketing strategies.
➡️ Would you like to tell inspiring stories about sustainability from your company and develop an effective marketing strategy that excites your target audience?
Then contact me and tell me more about it!
That’s my specialty in my work at my marketingstudio FutureS.⬅️
I’m certainly excited to see what else will unfold in this turbulent election year.
And one final thought after this long post:
It is the optimists, not the pessimists, who make the future and who are able to stand out in the present.
Thank you for reading along in this special,